Toronto DT 1 bedroom condo charts.

Friday Aug 21st, 2020

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The following chart is tracking recent trends in the condominium market in DT Toronto, specifically the following communities:

  • Bay Street Corridor
  • Church-Yonge Corridor
  • Moss Park
  • Waterfront C1
  • Waterfront C8

To compare apples to apples only one and one plus one units are being tracked.

Eliminated are properties sold at over $1M as these luxury units do not represent the needs of average consumer.

The data is tracked starting September 1, 2019 to illustrate the most recent trends and the impact of Covid-19 on this segment of the real estate.

It was an interesting a crazy year for all of us, the time period covered in these charts reflects this quite well. After the summer of 2019 the DT condo market was very strong and steadily climbing all the way to the end of the year. The first two and half months of 2020 marks the period I would describe as sellers’ market on steroids with majority units receiving multiple offers and selling over asking. March 15 everything came to a halt, it seemed like the world is about to end, the real estate froze. Things started moving again in May which I would describe as a recover period, although the recovery period is quite different from freeholds and is a more balanced market.

Average Selling Price.

The highest average price for the units tracked in these charts was not surprisingly in February 2020, followed closely by first half of March. In the second half of March covid did not take full effect yet as many of the transactions in that period were a spill off from the first half of March.

April was the month we saw a significant drop off in pricing in comparison to the first couple of months, and even late 2019, the average price of the units sold in the first half of April was $620,229, that’s a drop of $70,664 or approx. 10% from the heights of the February, and was comparable to prices in September/October 2019.

In the following months the prices have rebounded to roughly $655K range in May and June, July was approx. $642K, and the first half of August was roughly $635K.

It’s hard to say if this is a beginning of downtrend, despite the fact I have narrowed the criteria quite a bit to ensure the conformity of the units analyzed, the make up of the units sold may affect the average price for the period.

 

 

Volume.

Ignoring the slow months of December and January due to holidays the volume typically ranges between 100 to 140 units sold in a semi-monthly period. February and March 2020 were hoovering around the top of the range, and when covid hit the volume was reduced by 75% in the first half of April. The volume slightly increased and continued to be low until the end of May, second half of June and first half of July had volumes of almost 140 units sold respectively. The second half of July actually had the highest volume in the period covered of 162, that IMO can be explained as a catch up to the second quarter of the year which was really slow in volume.

The first half of August shows a reduction in the units sold down to 109, this is at the lower end of the typical range, time will tell if this is a beginning of a weakness in the market and the downtrend is to follow, for the time being it’s too early to tell.

Sold to list ratio.

After the craziness of January to March 2020 the sold to list ratio has held steady between 99-102 after March which is consistent with 2019.

DOM.

During the strongest market of February to March 2020, the days on the market were between 10 to 16, I am ignoring the higher DOM for January due to holidays. During April and first half of May the DOM hit 20, and was between 14 and 18 in the following months. In the first half of August 2020 the it hit 20 again. We will need to second half of August and September to confirm if this weakness is to continue.

 

Summary.

Overall DT condo market has experienced a balanced market after the lock down of the second half of March and April, the prices have recovered to the levels from the last quarter of 2019, but the overall indicators may show a weakness in the first half of August, this trend will need to be confirmed by the second half of August and later months.

The rental market in DT core has been abysmal, prior to covid the rental market has been a landlord’s market with bidding wars not uncommon, the landlord could choose from multiple applications although there were indicators starting towards the end of 2019 that the rental prices have plateaued.

Because of covid the travel has pretty much stopped, short term rentals turned to long term rentals, employees in hospitality, entertainment, etc industry have been laid off, office workers are working form home, students will have remote classes, DT at the moment is not what attracts many young people to move there and some opt to move back to their parents suburbia homes. For all these factors I expect the rental market to be soft at least for the balance of this year and possibly beyond.

The question is how will this translate into resale.

At the moment DT condo market for 1 and 1+1 is a balanced market, the first half of August may signal some weakness but it’s too soon to tell if this is a beginning of the downtrend or not.


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